⏳This Week in Spain: The Race Tightens
Also: Another offensive banner, a beached whale, and dancing soldiers.
By @IanMount and @AdrianBono | July 6, 2023 | Madrid | Issue #21
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🥜 This Week in a Nutshell: The PP goes down to earth while the left is feeling a little bit optimistic.
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There’s some nail-biting going on
🗳 The Polls Are Getting Closer as 23J Nears
The poll-leading center-right Partido Popular (PP) and its leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo have had a tough few weeks—because the inevitable happened. That is, the 23J election race began to tighten as the euphoria the PP was riding after whooping the center-left PSOE socialists in the local and regional 28M elections began to fade.
Why? A confluence of forces have conspired to bring the PP down to earth.
The left wing began to campaign vigorously. The fractured far left, finally unified in the form of Sumar, stopped fighting among itself and started attacking the PP. And they’ve had a pretty obvious route to attack the PP. What would that be?
The PP has made coalition deals with the far-right Vox in places like Valencia and Extremadura (where its leader originally promised that she wouldn’t do such a thing). And to thank the PP, Vox has
kept a low profileturned up the volume on its most aggressive rhetoric, from anti-LGBTQ to anti-immigrant, climate change-denying and really anything else to remind people that the PP’s partners in a national government aren’t middle-of-the-road types.PSOE Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez starting talking. A lot. Seriously, this guy has not met an interview request he can turn down, including ones from Jordi Évole, El Hormiguero—even the Gen Z podcasters La Pija y la Quinqui— (again: Pedro, where’s our interview?). He even talked to right-leading (and massively watched) daytime TV star Ana Rosa Quintana this week (more on that below). Worse for the PP and Núñez Feijóo than the exposure this gives Sánchez is the fact that he is a skilled verbal dueler and is widely thought to have “won” each and every single interview.
So where does this leave us? Good of you to ask. The RTVE poll of polls has PP with 138 seats and Vox with 40 seats in parliament—down from previous weeks but still just over the 176 needed for a majority.
Other polls are less optimistic about the right’s prospects, however. One performed by 40db for El País, found that the PP and Vox would only get to 168 seats between them, while the national statistics board, the CIS, found that the PP and the PSOE would basically tie, but Sumar would do so well that actually the left could form a government.
But wait, wait, wait. Don’t pop the champagne (if you’re on the left) or rend your clothes (if you’re on the right) just yet. The polls have underestimated the right in recent elections, and CIS specifically has way overestimated the left. In fact, more than a few people suggest that the Sánchez-appointed CIS boss José Félix Tezanos puts his finger on the scale for the PSOE. Whether intentional or not, the CIS results have been off for a while. El País stats guru Kiko Llaneras offer a good primer of how wrong they are here.
So who should we listen to? The polls of polls from El País and RTVE remove a lot of the outliers. And an outfit called GAD3 has been among the most accurate in recent elections, In the daily polls it puts together for ABC (July 3; July 4), it has the PP with over 150 seats and a fading Vox with 25-30—in other words, enough to govern.
But this could all still blow up spectacularly? Of course! The July 10 one-on-one debate between Núñez Feijóo and Sánchez will probably be the only change the two will be in the same room between now and election day. People say debates don’t really change everything, but with Sánchez being a good debater and Núñez Feijóo suffering from a moderate case of foot-in-mouth disease, it should at least offer some heat, if not light.
Expect the two to keep to their knitting in the meantime. Sánchez will not use the words Núñez Feijóo or PP in a sentence with also mentioning Vox or far right—i.e. “I’m the only one who can save you!” On the flip side, Núñez Feijóo will roll out largely middle-of-the-road proposals like the PP’s electoral program, which basically restated the proposal he made a week ago—remember we said he would try to keep it dull? And he will call on the PSOE to step aside and let him govern without Vox if the PP comes in first. (Hint: The PSOE will say no as long as Sánchez lives and breathes, no matter what old socialist grandees like Felipe González say.)
Both major parties will take offense at any criticism made by the other. In one of the more overwrought reactions of the election season, PSOE minister Félix Bolaños said the socialists would complain to the Election Board because the PP electoral program included a picture of the Moncloa governmental palace because it was somehow “indecent” to put a picture of the Spanish White House in a document of a party running to lead the country (huh?).
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💬 Five things to discuss at dinner parties this week
1. No more immunity for Puigdemont
If you were in Spain in 2017, chances are you remember Carles Puigdemont. The former president of Catalonia and current Catalan pro-independence MEP lives in self-imposed exile in Belgium since he led the 2017 referendum that attempted to declare Catalonia’s independence and… ended up making the headlines around the world for all the wrong reasons.
The European General Court (TGUE) in Luxembourg lifted Puigdemont’s parliamentary immunity yesterday, along with that of two of his former advisors, Toni Comín and Clara Ponsatí. The EU's judicial body rejected their appeals challenging the European Parliament's decision to lift their immunity in 2021. This means that Supreme Court Judge Pablo Llarena, who has indicted them for rebellion, disobedience and aggravated embezzlement, can now issue a new European arrest warrant for their extradition.
Puigdemont and his advisors have been in a legal battle with the Spanish justice system since becoming MEPs in 2019.
Puigdemont announced on Twitter that they would appeal the ruling and seek injunctions to maintain their immunity until a final decision is made. They argue that they are political refugees and being persecuted for political reasons. He now risks being arrested if he leaves Belgium.
The ruling was welcomed by the Spanish government and the opposition. So the PP and the PSOE agree on something, right? Well, no. The government sees the ruling as an endorsement of Spanish institutions and the rule of law, while the opposition sees it as an implicit criticism of the government's attempt to ease the legal situation of the independence politicians (the PSOE-led coalition approved a reform of the penal code that abolished the crime of “sedition” basically to benefit nine pro-independence leaders who had been sentenced to prison over the illegal referendum).
So it’s over and Puigdemont will be brought back? Not exactly. Yesterday's ruling rejects the appeal made by the three pols, who said they were the victims of "political persecution" to permanently regain their immunity. But they can appeal. So expect
monthsyears of court fun to come!
2. 🐳 Like oysters have pearls, so do sperm whales have…
A dead sperm whale rolled up on the Nogales beach of La Palma in the Canary Islands—and it was carrying a treasure chest in its guts.
The 13-meter-long beast hit the beach on May 21, and its weight—between five and 10 tons below normal for its size—gave a hint that it might have died from malnutrition. But how?
Scientists discovered during their necropsy (a word we just learned means the autopsy of an animal—go vocab!) of the cachalote that indeed the huge mammal died because it had not been able to digest food—caused by an obstruction in its intestines that led to a “hemorrhagic process caused by chronic obstructive inflammation in the colon.” Like a gigantic kidney stone.
So, the whale choked on a chicken bone? The “what” that was blocking its intestines wasn’t some piece of detritus like, say, a beach ball lost at sea, or even Jonah. It was a 9-kilo rock of ambergris.
What is that? Ambergris is a waxy substance created during the sperm whale’s digestive process, and usually expelled at sea and then is usually found floating in the ocean or washed up on beaches. Only about one in 100 sperm whales create it, the scientists said.
Why do we care? Ambergris—especially the well-aged kind found in the dea whale, not the newly created stuff that has a “disagreeable fecal odor” (and who likes that?)—is prized by perfume makers.
How prized? The good stuff normally goes for some €65,000/kilo, meaning the stone found in the Palma whale could be worth €400,000. Perfume expert Marina Barcenilla told El Programa de Ana Rosa that it is used “to fix the perfumes, it stabilizes them, it adds a note and a very strange smell, one that’s difficult to describe, but completes the perfume and makes it magical.”
The money from selling the ambergris is expected to stay in La Palma—perhaps to help those affected by the 83-day eruption of La Palma’s Cumbre Vieja volcano in 2021.
3. 🪧 Another week, another offensive banner
Off-putting group-insulting political signs are really all the rage these days. Just a few weeks after Vox installed and then took down (following censure from the electoral commission) an electoral banner showing a hand tossing symbols of feminism, the LGBT community, communism and Catalan independence into the garbage (as we noted then—subtle), and two months after the Madrid mayoral candidate for far-left Podemos put up a poster dissing Cayetanos (the posh), they’re at it again.
Really outdoing themselves on the nasty-o-meter this time, however. The company Desokupa, which is dedicated to (the slightly exaggerated problem of) evicting squatters from apartments they’ve invaded (and is supported by Vox), installed a banner on Madrid’s Calle Atocha near the Antón Martín market. It shows a picture of PM Pedro Sánchez with the slogan “You to Morocco; Desokupa to the Moncloa!” Again, subtle.
The banner also featured images of left-wing politicians of whom Desokupa (and Vox) and not at all fanboys—and would also like to “evict”. Like Podemos pols Irene Montero and Ione Belarra, ex-Podemos boss Pablo Iglesias, and Catalan separatist politician Gabriel Rufián of the ERC.
Pushing to “evict” Sánchez is just a harsher version of what the PP has been saying. But the bit about Morocco, well, Desokupa has a less than stellar history with people from Spain’s southern neighbor.
Back in 2021, the company’s boss, Daniel Esteve, ran a harassment campaign against a 26-year-old Moroccan woman, who he alleged was squatting in the apartment of a 90-year-old Spanish woman named Carmen.
Turned out the Carmen was subleasing the rent-controlled apartment to the Moroccan woman (for more than she was paying), something that was prohibited under the lease. When the owner found our, she canceled the lease. Carmen’s family reframed the situation as an okupa, and Esteve continued his campaign against the Moroccan woman even after he learned the reality of the situation. Far-right party Vox also took up Carmen’s cause.
Who is Daniel Esteve? Born in Barcelona in 1970, Esteve was (according to El Español) a professional boxer (he won 11 of 15 fights as a heavyweight), security and bodyguard, nightclub bouncer, International Fighting Championships promoter and, supposedly, a guy who speaks five languages. He founded Desokupa in 2016 and claims to have evicted 7,600 squatters since.
What happens now? Lots of people are wound-up about the banner. The PSOE filed a complaint with the Electoral Board, denouncing the banner as hate speech, while residents of the building it’s on are The Hulk angry. “At no time did they tell us what it was, because we would have said no," the building’s board president told Cadena Ser. "They have deceived us. We are super angry and wish they would take it down, and they tell us that it is going to be there for three weeks. That’s crazy."
4.🕺 Dancing soldiers!
You’d think after the Will Smith slap of Chris Rock at the Oscars, people might be more careful around award shows. But you’d be wrong.
The Army celebrated its 59th Premios Ejército (you know, Army Awards) on June 29, to bestow prizes on outstanding soldier-artists in the presence of Defense Minister Margarita Robles. So far, so good, right? Yes, sorta. But this. is an election year.
Eight soldiers, known as the Ballet de Cuca Pons, performed a dance number on stage. But not any dance numbers. Rather, they performed a (remarkably well-choreographed) four-minute number in camo uniform to the tune of Michael Jackson’s “They don’t care about us”.
Yeah, they danced, so what? The dancing didn’t cause a problem, but the song… “They don’t care about us” is one of Jackson’s most controversial songs. First because his use of the terms Jew me and kike in the original version opened him (shocker!) to charges of anti-semitism.
But that wasn’t the problem at the Army Awards. Instead, the issue was that the song has been largely been interpreted as an anti-police-brutality song—or just an anti-police or anti-armed forces song. And this being election season in polarized Spain, it led to massive pushback in social-media-landia, with one typical happypants user saying, “Shame and dishonor have also reached our Armed Forces.”
So, maybe best to just stick with singing “In the Navy”? Just asking.
5. Murder in Madrid becomes part of 23J electioneering
Madrid is usually perceived as a super safe city where violent crimes are rarely committed. So many where in shock this Monday after news broke that Concha, a 61-year-old owner of a clothing store working near Plaza de Tirso de Molina was stabbed to death during a robbery—a few hundred meters away from the Puerta del Sol.
Witnesses said a man entered her store around 1:15 p.m. and stabbed her multiple times in the abdomen in an apparent robbery. Bystanders claimed they saw a man fleeing towards Atocha or Lavapiés as the victim managed to take a few steps towards the store's exit while holding her blood-covered hand to her abdomen.
A man identified by the police as Jesus M. has been arrested in connection to her murder. He had been under surveillance by the police since the murder, as the store had cameras that recorded the attack and investigators quickly identified him.
The recording “shows the attacker repeatedly stabbing the 61-year-old victim with a sharp object. It also shows a woman facilitating the robbery, opening the door and staying outside.”
Both suspects are Spanish, local media reports, and are “known criminals in the area” who have been arrested previously for “theft, assault, and parole violations.” You know, good people. They were arrested Tuesday in a hostel where both were staying on Calle Atocha, about 24 hours after the crime.
Both have confessed to committing the crime, which feels sort of case closed-y. But far-right Vox leader Santiago Abascal tried to make it seem like the murderers were immigrants and tweeted that “Neither Sánchez nor his vice president would acknowledge this woman… Only Vox remembers that there are Spanish citizens who are suffering from the immigration madness currently supported by all parties.”
Again…both murderers were Spanish. Abascal later admitted during an interview that the information he posted “appeared to be wrong” but didn’t tweet a correction. Which doesn’t at all make something horrible just a little worse.
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